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Basic oil depletion models and emission levels.
By Energy Saving Now in cooperation with
Uppsala Hydrocarbon Depletion Study Group (UHDG), Uppsala University, Sweden.
Additions, updates and adaptations to ESN by Hakan Falk.
To give information about the depletion of our oil reserves, we found that the newly founded research group from Uppsala University. UHDG and The Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO), have already started to make its mark and published several very interesting research papers. We also found that their work is independent, competent and serious. In times were the Governments and Oil companies have a vested interest in describing the depletion situation as positive as possible, it is important to have access to independent unbias research.
The UGDP depletion base case scenario of oil and natural gas depletion, show that now in year 2004 oil production is at its peak and that the combined oil and natural gas will peak in 10 years time. Further 10 years ahead, the oil production will be at its 1970 years levels, before the first oil crises and 30% down from todays level.
If UGDP and ASPO are right and it is no real evidence to counter that today, it is no space for the projected growth in the developed and developing countries. The only possible substitutes will be expansion of nuclear, coal and renewable energy. Because of armament risks, large scale nuclear with the necessary enrichment, is only an alternative for the developing countries and a few others. The majority of known coal reserves are in US, Russia and developing countries, but is an environmentally dirty and risky energy source. The widely discussed Hydrogen is not and will not be an independent energy source. The alternatives for the majority of the worlds developing countries are Energy efficiency, Biofuels, Hydro, Wind and Solar, this for at least 50 years ahead and when the oil production will be close to the level of 1960. It is no soft landing available and the developed countries that quickly and aggressively introduce energy efficiency measures, will maybe be capable to deal with the worst consequences.
The BP 2003 statistics.
BP's annual statistics is a commonly used document for parties that are interested in fossil reserves and depletion. In its major parts it is considered to be both correct and detailed. Since it is based on reporting from respective countries, it might include some over optimistic numbers, especially for Middle East.
.....more.
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